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Alternative Proposed Fix:

Instead of doing a percentage (where there's a lot of uncertainty), let's move to full numbers. 

Every week, give a set of Ruby Fragments (or similar) that can be used at the wilderforge. Example: Every Ancient gets 9 fragements per week, and the forge will take 10 to create a random item. Makes it so we know for sure that we get one as expected, but the RNG moves to the forge for what item we get. 

Makes it clearer imo. Might simplify the code a bit too.

Vote rewards are making Wilder seasons much too easy. With the new WilderTools it makes the market flooded with level 0 tools which isn't really in the spirit of the leveling tools, so I'm looking into other ways to adjust the vote reward rates. 

WilderTools used to be just max enchanted tools, but now more than half of them are very special, so they don't make sense as weekly rewards now. Bowman's suggestion is interesting, but I feel gives away too many fragments.

Ancient rank is pretty trivial to get at this point so giving so many rewards to that rank feels askew.

Some random thoughts for now...

Bowman idea sounds good but make it harder than that and make it something to work towards as well.